What’s a ‘bad’ year?
A year with inadequate rainfall to get people, wildlife and livestock through the long dry season (May-October).

Amboseli only has on average some 330 mm (13 inches) of rain per year. And it can only support the magnificent array of wildlife and Maasai stock because of the additional input of water and food from the swamps that are fed by the water percolating from the Kilimanjaro forests.

If rainfall is poor, cattle and wildlife converge on dwindling water and forage resources, and conflict ensues: cattle and goats get killed; elephants and lions get speared.

What’s happening this year?
Too little, too late. Apart from the good, but short-lived, rainfall in March, it is close to a disaster.

2007-08 Amboseli rainfall

From the graph, we can see that rainfall every month since the middle of last year (except December and March) has been well below average. In fact this rainfall year is similar to three other years (’83-84, ‘96-97 and ‘99-00) in which rainfall was poor, and there were consequently increased incidents of elephants being speared or livestock getting injured when they bumped into elephants at waterholes.

It’s possible to predict that 2007-08, with a low rainfall total and virtually no effective rain after March, will be a year with a lower than average forage reserves by the end of the dry season. And obviously, water will be at premium as well. The shortages will make life difficult for both wildlife and livestock, and are very likely to lead to high levels of competition and conflict over dwindling resources throughout August, September and October.

What can be done?
Well, since we cannot make it rain, we have to find ways to show the Maasai community that we are concerned about the plight of their livestock as well as the elephants. We believe we should try to pre-empt conflict and build goodwill by helping the Maasai in key areas with access to water away from the central swamps in the Park.

After talking to community leaders, we think the best ‘pre-emptive strike’ would be to help refurbish up to ten critical ‘silangas‘, which are earthen stream dams in the ecosystem outside of the national park.

Massai woman at silanga

For details on the implications of such support, please visit the main ATE website’s forum topic Early Warning in Amboseli.

What would be the impact of our help?
Improving the livelihoods of the local community, delaying or at least reducing the magnitude of the seasonal ‘invasion’ of cattle into the park, and, last but certainly not least, generating goodwill and enlisting elephant allies in what will certainly be a long dry season.

And, as a bonus, the goodwill generated by short-term action will certainly extend well beyond this particular ‘bad’ year, and strengthen the partnership between ATE and the local communities in working to achieve the vision of a world with room for both people and elephants.

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AERP, the Amboseli Elephant Research Project is the trust’s research arm. For nearly four decades AERP has studied the Amboseli elephants, making it today one of the longest studied populations of free living large mammals in the world.

AECT, the African Elephant Conservation Trust, is an endowment fund established in the USA. The long-term objective of AECT is to initiate, support and ensure the continuation of key elephant research projects across the African continent modeled on the ATE philosophy and research methodology. In time, income from the endowment can used to fully fund the work of ATE and AERP and enable the field researchers focus their energies on their project and relieve them of the burden of continued fund raising.

AERP’s unparalleled body of knowledge will thus be made available to those addressing issues such as land use, wildlife education, protected area management, and the consequences of human population expansion.

Watch this space for important newsflashes, or visit our home site for archives and more interactive opportunities.

Karibuni! (Welcome, all!)

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